Unmasking the Gaza War: Is Natural Gas the Unseen Motive?

The Gaza Strip, with its pivotal location along the Mediterranean coast, has been a key geographical and political arena, mainly inhabited by Muslim and Christian Arabs since the early 20th century under Ottoman rule. The ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, particularly the Gaza War, is now being scrutinized through a new lens, suggesting that the struggle over natural gas reserves could be an underlying cause of the unrest. This area’s significance is not only historical but also strategic, as it encompasses potential Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ), granting rights for marine resource exploration, including lucrative energy production.

Within this context, recent developments highlight Israel’s approval of natural gas exploration licenses and the development of the Gaza Marine, a natural gas field off the Gazan coast, which could alter the region’s economic landscape. Moreover, the recognition of Palestine by a notable number of UN members as a sovereign state underscores the complexity of claiming these resources under international law. This exploration and potential exploitation of natural gas, positioned as a central theme behind the ongoing geopolitical strife, implicates not only Israel and Palestine but also international stakeholders eyeing the energy-rich Eastern Mediterranean.

The Strategic Importance of Gaza’s Natural Resources

Gaza Marine Natural Gas Field: A Focal Point of Economic Interest

Discovered in 2000, the Gaza Marine natural gas field holds an estimated 1 trillion cubic feet of gas, making it a significant asset for the Palestinian economy.

However, despite its potential to generate $700-800 million annually for the Palestinian Authority and ensure a more reliable energy supply, development has been stalled due to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and control issues.

Israeli Control and International Law

As the Israel’s control over Gaza’s offshore natural gas reserves, including the Gaza Marine field and the Meged oil field in the West Bank, prevents the Palestinian Authority from capitalizing on these resources. This exploitation is deemed a violation of international law, as the resources within an occupied territory should benefit the local population rather than the occupying power.

Strategic and Environmental Implications

The development of Gaza Marine could transform Israel’s relationship with the global community concerning its occupation of Palestine and provide a significant economic boost to the Palestinian economy. Additionally, exploiting these reserves could alleviate the current energy crisis in Gaza, reduce pollution, and address the financial costs imposed by prolonged power cuts.

Historical Context: Occupation and Resource Control

The historical context of occupation and resource control in the Gaza Strip is characterized by a series of significant events that have shaped the current geopolitical and economic landscape:

Initiation of Occupation

The 1948 war led to tens of thousands of villagers fleeing to the Gaza Strip due to the bombing of 29 villages in southern Palestine by Israeli military forces.

Following the 1967 Six-Day War, Israel commenced a military occupation of the Gaza Strip, resulting in widespread systematic human rights violations.

Resistance and Governance

After the occupation of Gaza, major uprisings, known as Intifadas, occurred in 1987-1991 and 2000-2005 with Palestinians striving to end the occupation and establish an independent state.

In results, Hamas, founded in 1988, emerged as a significant force against the Israeli occupation, eventually gaining governance of the Gaza Strip after winning the 2006 Palestinian legislative elections.

Control over Resources

Israel has exerted control over natural resources, including the Gaza Marine gas field and water, significantly impacting Palestinian life and economy. This includes blocking the development of the Gaza Marine gas field and extending control to land and water resources, leading to the Palestinians losing access to over 60 percent of West Bank land and two-thirds of its grazing land.

The blockade of Gaza by Israel since 2007 has further prevented Palestinians from exercising control over their fossil fuel resources, with international entities like Shell withdrawing from the Gaza gas field project due to these complications.

These historical events underscore the intertwined nature of political conflict and control over natural resources within the region.

The Role of International Players

The involvement of international players in the Gaza conflict, particularly regarding natural gas interests, has added layers of complexity to the already intricate geopolitical landscape.

Support and Aid Dynamics

Iran’s backing of Hamas with cash and advanced rockets indicates the strategic alliances formed around the conflict, with potential implications for regional energy politics.

The fluctuation of foreign aid, from $2 billion in 2008 to a stark reduction to $550 million in 2022, underscores the changing international commitment to Gaza’s socioeconomic restoration, which is crucial for stabilizing the region.

Legal and Economic Repercussions

The International Criminal Court’s jurisdiction over war crimes, including pillage, highlights the legal risks for foreign companies involved in Israeli gas exploration projects. This includes major international corporations like Italian Eni, British BP, and Dana Petroleum, a subsidiary of Korea National Oil Corporation, which could face civil actions for damages and individual criminal liability.

The European Union’s stance on agreements with Israel, mandating the explicit exclusion of territories occupied since 1967, contrasts with its memorandum of understanding on gas extraction with Egyptian and Israeli energy ministers, which omitted the territoriality clause. This discrepancy raises questions about the EU’s commitment to its stated position and the legal and ethical implications for regional energy cooperation.

Market Impacts

Geopolitical tensions have directly influenced oil and gas markets, with Brent crude oil prices and LNG spot prices experiencing significant increases due to concerns over supply disruption. The halting of natural gas exports via the East Mediterranean Gas pipeline between Israel and Egypt by Chevron, following attacks, exemplifies the direct impact of the conflict on regional energy supplies.

These dynamics underscore the intricate web of geopolitical interests, legal considerations, and market reactions that define the role of international players in the Gaza conflict, particularly in the context of natural gas exploration and exploitation.

Economic Implications for the Palestinian Economy

The economic implications for the Palestinian economy due to the ongoing conflict and control over natural resources, particularly natural gas, are profound and multifaceted:

Impact on Energy Prices and Economic Contraction

The conflict has introduced a $3-4 per barrel crude oil risk premium, directly affecting global energy markets.

An explosion at the Al Ahli hospital in Gaza led to a $1.69 increase in Brent crude oil prices per barrel, underscoring the volatility of regional events on global oil prices.

LNG spot prices surged by over 40% to $18.345/MMBtu since 7 October, highlighting the conflict’s significant impact on global energy prices.

Economic Contraction and Poverty

The Gazan economy experienced a 4.5% contraction in the first three quarters of 2023, with a military operation leading to a 24% GDP contraction and a 26.1% drop in GDP per capita for the entire year.

The conflict has escalated the number of Palestinians living in poverty by 20%, potentially reaching 34% and affecting nearly half a million more people if the conflict continues.

Potential for Economic Revival

In June 2023, Israel gave preliminary consent for the development of the Gaza Marine gas field between the Palestinian Authority (PA) and an Egyptian consortium. This development could unlock significant economic opportunities for the Palestinian economy, despite the potential revenues from Gaza Marine being minimal compared to Israel’s existing gas resources.

Environmental and Social Consequences

Environmental Impacts of Natural Gas Extraction

Marine Life: The extraction process poses a significant threat to marine ecosystems, potentially harming various species that inhabit the waters off the Gaza coast. The disruption caused by drilling activities and the risk of oil spills and leaks could lead to long-term ecological damage.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions: While natural gas is often touted as a cleaner alternative to other fossil fuels, the extraction and processing stages release considerable amounts of greenhouse gases, contributing to global warming and climate change.

Oil Spills and Leaks: The risk of accidental spills and leaks during the extraction process could have catastrophic effects on the marine environment, affecting not just the flora and fauna but also the livelihoods of communities dependent on these waters.

Social Impacts of Natural Gas Extraction

Resource Conflict: The competition over natural gas reserves may exacerbate existing political tensions, leading to further conflicts within the region. This competition can strain relationships between communities and governing bodies, heightening instability.

Lack of Transparency: Without clear and transparent management practices, the benefits of natural gas extraction may not reach the local population. This lack of transparency can lead to mistrust and social unrest, further complicating the socio-political landscape.

Broader Consequences

Vulnerability to Climate Change: The Israeli occupation restricts Palestinian access to natural resources, severely limiting their ability to adapt to climate change. This vulnerability is exacerbated by the environmental impacts of ongoing conflicts and natural gas extraction activities.

Impact on the Population: The Gaza Strip’s high population density and poor living conditions, coupled with one of the highest unemployment rates globally, make its residents particularly susceptible to the adverse effects of environmental degradation and social unrest.

Towards a Sustainable and Just Solution

The path towards a sustainable and just solution for Gaza, deeply entangled in conflict and environmental challenges, necessitates a multifaceted approach:

Ending the Occupation for Resource Autonomy

The conflict has inflicted severe losses, both in terms of human lives and the displacement of the Gazan population, underscoring the urgency for a resolution.

Central to any sustainable solution is the cessation of the Occupation, ensuring Palestine’s sovereignty over its resources and land. This includes reinstating the rights of the Palestinian community to make collective decisions on matters affecting their future.

Rights and Resources

Palestine must gain rights over its natural resources, crucial for economic revival and autonomy. This involves reclaiming occupied land and establishing a framework for equitable resource distribution and management.

Focus on Renewable Energy

The international community and donors, in their efforts to assist Gaza’s reconstruction, should prioritize investments in renewable energy sources. This strategy not only supports environmental sustainability but also fosters economic resilience by reducing dependency on external energy supplies.

Emphasizing the “clean phase in” of renewables could significantly contribute to Gaza’s path towards sustainability, aligning with global efforts to combat climate change and promote environmental justice.

This approach, rooted in respecting sovereignty and promoting sustainable development, outlines a path forward that addresses both the immediate and long-term challenges faced by the Gazan population.

Conclusion

The exploration and potential exploitation of natural gas reserves in the Gaza Strip, specifically through the development of the Gaza Marine gas field, underscore a composite blend of historical conflict and prospective economic revitalization for Palestine. This narrative has been intricately woven through discussions on geopolitical strife, environmental concerns, and the quest for sovereignty and economic independence. By delving into the multifaceted layers of this issue, from the strategic importance of Gaza’s natural resources to the environmental and social repercussions of their extraction, the article has illuminated the complex interplay between natural resources and regional stability, highlighting the broader implications of these dynamics for all stakeholders involved.

Towards fostering a just and sustainable solution, it becomes imperative to recognize the critical need for sovereignty over natural resources, underscored by the exploration of renewable energy alternatives and the cessation of occupation. Such steps not only promise economic revival for Palestine but also propose a framework for peace and environmental sustainability within the region. As the Gazan population looks towards a future of autonomy and environmental stewardship, the international community’s role in supporting these endeavors remains paramount, offering a beacon of hope for resolving long-standing conflicts through cooperative and sustainable practices. The pursuit of these outcomes not only holds significance for Gaza and its inhabitants but also resonates as a broader lesson in the confluence of natural resource management, environmental justice, and geopolitical peacekeeping.

References

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